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Donald Trump - the billionaire casino magnate, reality TV show star, and member of the World Wide Entertainment Wrestling Hall of Fame - is running for president of the U.S. in 2016.
There are reasons to celebrate Trump's candidacy, but more serious reasons to oppose it. Those are discussed in more detail below, followed by posts detailing the huge problems with a "President Trump".
Trump's Completely Unrealistic Policies
Trump's signature policies are completely unrealistic. They might sound tough to Trump supporters, but they're actually very weak because they will never happen.
Those signature policies include temporarily banning all Muslims from entering the U.S. and forcibly deporting all illegal aliens. Neither of those will ever happen, as discussed at the links. Both of those policies are like Don Knotts in a muscle suit: they seem tough from a distance, but once you see them up close and in detail you realize how weak they really are.
"Seriously, have you ever heard me say something like that? I defend all the French people in France, regardless of their origin, regardless of their religion." - Marine Le Pen on Trump's Muslims plan
At the same time as promoting unrealistic plans, Trump refuses to promote realistic policies that are actually very strong, like attrition and much more stringent background checks for refugees. There will be more potential terrorists in the U.S. than there would be if Trump had proposed stringent background checks.
Some say Trump's unrealistic policies are just an opening gambit and that he intends to negotiate them down. Negotiating Trump's unrealistic policies down will make them more realistic, but will just make the problems the U.S. faces even worse.
A lesser version of banning Muslims would be allowing some in, which would involve much more stringent background checks. Why not simply promote much more stringent background checks from the start, and refuse to negotiate down such a commonsense proposal?
A lesser version of mass deportations would be letting some illegal aliens remain in the U.S. Amnesty supporters are very skilled and resourceful. They'd make sure that as many illegal aliens as possible get to remain. As with Trump's Muslims ban, why not simply support attrition from the start, and avoid negotiating it down by aggressively defending the plan?
To make all of that worse, Trump would follow his mass deportations plan with a mass legalization plan. Amnesty supporters have a tremendous deal of power and would work to make sure Trump legalizes as many former illegal aliens as possible.
Trump does have some positives in his favor:
- Trump has caused Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, and others to drop out of the race.
- Trump has shown that conservatism isn't working for millions of Americans.
- Trump is the closest the U.S. has had to a nationalist in recent memory. From a distance and despite his many issues, he presents a patriotic agenda. That presents a strong contrast to both the bogus patriotism of the GOP and the Tea Parties movement and to borderless globalism. However, Trump is to nationalism what Dr. Nick is to surgery.
- Trump has shown how incompetent many intermediaries are. Despite Trump's huge vulnerabilities, most of the anti-Trump efforts have just helped him.
At least at this point in time, Trump's negatives far outweigh his positives:
- Some of Trump's supporters aren't pathological liars and aren't as vile as most in the Tea Parties movement. However, his supporters have been on the losing end of battles with the elites for decades and in some cases they don't even realize that. They aren't exactly the best judges of character. They hurt Trump by being uncritical fans of his rather than demanding better from him. Trump supporters aren't capable of showing intermediaries wrong and can't even conceive of the value in that. Trump supporters and those like them are a major part of the reason why the elites are able to get away with massive/illegal immigration and questionable trade deals: those in the Trump sphere either don't do anything about those issues or do dumb things that in effect help the elites. They're loud and they say and do dumb things that the elites use to get their way. Trump channels those people, saying on the national stage what they normally only get to say at bars in small Tennessee towns. Trump isn't representing their interests in smart ways that will achieve laudable goals of reducing immigration and preventing terrorism. He's simply playing to those who have repeatedly shown that they're no match for the elites. Trump isn't helping his supporters because doing things the way his supporters do things clearly doesn't work.
- Trump has links to organized crime figures. If he becomes president, who knows what sway they'd have over him. Trump occasionally acts like a member of organized crime himself such as by encouraging his supporters to rough up protesters at his rallies.
- Trump's campaign has been almost completely anti-intellectual. Trump has rarely made a valid argument for or against something. He also tends to lie and exaggerate. He tends to just make pronouncements without backing them up. Many of the things he says are simply personal smears. That certainly resonates with many people, but it's not going to keep the cultural far-left and amnesty supporters in check. Calling far-left leaders names isn't going to undercut them. Showing them wrong would undercut them, but almost nothing Trump has said and nothing his followers have said indicates that they're capable of showing even the least competent far-left leaders wrong. It would help Trump to show someone like John Oliver wrong, but he and his followers aren't capable of that and his followers aren't capable of helping those who can. Trump isn't encouraging his followers to do a better job and to improve their lot: he just wants them to wave his signs and vote for him.
- Trump's response to protests illustrates various highly negative aspects of his candidacy, including that he can't figure out how to do things the correct way. His calls for violence against protesters have been used against him and obviously Trump realized calling for violence wasn't a point in his favor because he's backed away from it. If Trump could figure out the best way to do things, he wouldn't have called for violence in the first place and then had to back away from it: he would have realized that calling for violence would be used against him. Trump's response to the melee at his Chicago rally could have resulted in reducing the power Black Lives Matter and MoveOn have if he'd done things the right way. He instead did things his normal lunkhead way that plays with his followers but that doesn't have an impact outside that group. The Chicago melee might help Trump get more supporters, but Trump didn't use it to help the U.S. as he should have. Trump could help the U.S. by engaging a few of the protesters at his rallies. Trump's lunkhead supporters - including those like John Kobylt - will think that means kowtowing to protesters as Bernie Sanders did with Black Lives Matter activists. They and Trump can't conceive of a third option: intellectually engaging protesters and showing them wrong. If Trump got into an impromptu debate with a protester about policy, that would show that he's capable of defending his policies and it would help show that those who protest him over the same issues are wrong. That would also reduce outbursts at his future events. Almost all of those protesting Trump aren't the brightest people around: if they were they'd protest Trump in smarter ways. Yet, Trump isn't willing or able to engage them and show them wrong. If he can't do that, how is he going to deal with China, Russia, and the Middle East?
- Trump's plans are completely unrealistic; see the links below for the details. Proposing unrealistic plans has kept Trump from proposing realistic plans that would help the U.S.
- Trump is the ultimate loose cannon. Who knows what Trump would unleash as president.