Is Trump playing 4D chess on amnesty?

Donald Trump is keenly trying to make a deal on amnesty, even though such a deal is completely unnecessary, even a small amnesty would lead to much larger amnesties and other problems, and even though anything Trump receives in the deal wouldn't materialize. As in the 1986 amnesty, we'd get all of the amnesty and little of the enforcement.

Ah, but some think differently. Here are two recent comments from the Breitbart comments section [1]:

Do you really think Trump is this naive? I suspect he threw DACA to Congress so the DemonRats could obsess over it for 6+ months and tear themselves apart by threatening to shut the government pig trough to obtain a deal that most Americans don't even support. Grab some popcorn and put your feet up.


This will be The Art of NO Deal!! DJT just playing with the Dems, throw this back in Congress lap knowing there would be No Deal... Expiration March! Chain Deportation soon after! NO DACAmnesty EVER!!

In other words, Trump is super smart and - despite all appearance to the contrary - he truly opposes amnesty. He's just playing 4th dimensional chess.

Does that theory make any sense? Of course not.

I've written thousands of posts against massive and illegal immigration and amnesty since 2002. I've never even for a split second thought Trump was on my side of the issue. Trump proposed a revolving door "touchback" amnesty two years ago. Trump has repeatedly hinted at amnesty (see the first link in this post for more). He's hired pro-amnesty hacks for his administration. Trump's vice president Mike Pence even had his own amnesty plan. Those are not the actions of someone who truly opposes amnesty.

Not convinced? Then what would be the benefit from Trump just pretending to support amnesty? He's not going to tie up Democratic Party leaders anymore than Obama did. They have to already be suspicious of Trump so they aren't going to just put everything on hold expecting him to do something. The Democratic Party isn't going to tear itself apart over amnesty any more than any slight issues relating to their past attempts to get Obama to push amnesty. Everyone who opposes amnesty and who follows these issues already knows the Democratic Party leaders are very bad on the issue, so it's not like Trump could open anyone's eyes. Let's say Trump demands more fencing in exchange for amnesty and the Dems balk. It's unclear how that would undercut the Dems since it's not like anyone who pays attention thinks they're strong on border security.

Could Trump be trying to get the Hispanic vote, just like George W Bush? Could Trump be trying to get the Dems to hold the bag for no amnesty, somehow thinking that will cause a mad dash for the GOP? That strains credulity. If a Hispanic voter's key issue is amnesty, they're going to always side with the Dems because the Dems will always give them more amnesty. The Dems might not deliver occasionally, but they have delivered on DACA, on sanctuary cities, and a host of other issues. The only way for the GOP to get those who support such issues is to be as bad as the Dems, and that's not going to happen.

Still not convinced? Then ask yourself if a smart anti-amnesty president would do these things. By even entertaining a deal on amnesty, Trump is implying that amnesty is acceptable. He's not saying "no amnesty, ever", he's open to negotiations. There's no such thing as half an amnesty: something is either amnesty or it isn't.

If Trump were truly opposed to amnesty, he wouldn't put it on the table. Instead, he'd make smart arguments against amnesty. Since one of the "4D chess" requirements is that Trump is smart, that means he can figure out such smart arguments. If he can't figure those out, then he's not smart and thus can't be playing "4D chess".

For instance, when Nancy Pelosi extols DREAMers and talks about how they're valedictorians who'll be future doctors, it shouldn't take a brain surgeon to figure out how to turn that against her: by pointing out to the Dem base that she'd deprive Mexico and other developing countries of valedictorians who'll be future doctors.

If Trump were smart, then he would know that would be a very strong argument that'd undercut one of the most popular arguments in favor of a DACA and/or DREAMer amnesty. If Trump truly opposed amnesty, then he'd just make those arguments. That would nip amnesty in the bud, leave the Dem leadership in a weakened position, and greatly help the USA.

Trump isn't doing that, is he?

I realize that some use the "4D chess" argument because they simply can't face up to the reality that Trump isn't that smart and that Trump supports amnesty (or they're paid to make such arguments in order to lull Trump supporters into complacency). They need to finally wake up to reality. Trump might say things they like to hear, but when the rubber meets the road he's colluding with Pelosi, Charles Schumer, and Lindsey Graham on amnesty.

There's no "4D chess" argument that explains what Trump's doing on amnesty, but I invite Trump fans to send me their wildest theories and I'll update this post and show them wrong: @24AheadDotCom_

[1] breitbart · com/big-government/2018/01/03/
white-house-hope-for-daca-deal-includes-wall-enforcement-ending-lottery-and-chain-migration/#comment-3691256039 and #comment-3691515827

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