The following is a Covid19-related letter sent to an aide for Los Angeles City mayor Eric Garcetti on 1/24/21. See the Covid19 page for the background details.

It's hard to find a Garcetti supporter on social media. Even the LAT has admitted how bad the rollout has been.

The only way to salvage Garcetti's career is to a) improve the vax distribution, and b) vax by actual ICU/death risk, not by occupation. That means vaxing those over 50 or those over 18 with multiple risk factors (the "High Risk Group") before anyone else.

95% of C19 deaths have been 50+. And, per ex-FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb: "if your goal is to maximize the preservation of human life, then you would bias the vaccine toward older Americans".

Instead, Garcetti is wasting doses on those who can afford to wait: the young & healthy like the 30-something owner of a "wellness center" or receptionists for veterinarians.

Garcetti might claim he's only following CDC recommendations, yet those recommendations have a strong political component (even Vox has admitted that, see "Who should get the vaccine first? The debate over a CDC panel’s guidelines, explained").

Garcetti might claim he wants to slow the spread, but since the point of slowing the spread is to minimize the numbers of infections amongst the High Risk Group, doesn't it make much more sense to just vax the High Risk Group first?

Garcetti might claim the High Risk Group should just keep out of harm's way, but as the ICU rates show that obviously isn't happening and 10 months of experience shows it isn't going to happen.

If Garcetti vaxes the High Risk Group first, deaths and ICU stays will be drastically reduced.

If Garcetti instead vaxes by occupation, deaths and ICU stays will mostly continue as they have and he'll prolong the pandemic.

Garcetti also runs the risk that those who are being de-prioritized will speak out.

It's not hard to imagine a viral video from a 64-year-old with multiple risk factors asking Garcetti why he wants them to wait behind 20-something plastic surgeon receptionists or 30-something dock workers.

And, it's not hard to imagine the media - if not the LAT, then the NYT - covering cases where someone in the High Risk Group died unnecessarily because Garcetti gave the dose that would have saved them to someone who could have waited.

If you have any doubts on the above, let me know and I'll try to find an expert to discuss this with you in more detail.