covid19

Covid-19

This page describes the optimal vaccine prioritization plan and describes what you can do right now to make it happen. Lower down there are links to some of the things we've done to achieve that plan.

SUMMARY
To minimize deaths, vaccine doses have to be prioritized mainly by age due to one simple statistic: 95% of Covid19 deaths have been those 50 years or older.

DETAILS
States such as California have mismanaged both the vaccine distribution and the order in which people can receive doses.

Instead of vaccinating those at highest risk of the ICU or death first, some localities are wasting scarce doses on those at low risk of the ICU or death. That will prolong the pandemic, prolong the lockdowns, and increase the death and ICU rate.

What's needed is to divide the population into two groups:
- the High Risk Group: those 50 and over, plus those 18 and over who have at least one risk factor [1]. They have the highest risk of the ICU or death.
- the Low Risk Group: everyone else. They have a much lower risk of the ICU or death.

Then, those in the High Risk Group will be ordered by risk. I.e., someone who's 90, who has multiple risk factors, and who's living in a group home will be ahead of someone who's 50 with a lower-risk risk factor.

The more of the High Risk Group that's vaccinated first, the less the "spread" matters: concerns about the spread were almost completely to protect the High Risk Group, but if they're protected by the vaccine then those concerns don't matter as much.

OBJECTIONS
One stock argument in favor of vaccinating young and healthy "healthcare workers" and "essential workers" is that we can't afford to have them out sick. Yet, data from over ten months of the pandemic shows the death rates of those groups is much lower than that of those over 50, and there have been few supply chain outages caused by them being out sick. There have been issues with oxygen supplies in hospitals, with ICU capacity, and so on but there have been few outages of medical personnel. Plus, "healthcare workers" have adequate PPE and - unlike most others - know how to use it correctly. Further, some or many of those labeled "healthcare workers" don't have direct, continuous contact with Covid-19 patients. For instance, Los Angeles gave a dose to a 30-something owner of a New Age "wellness center" and those like receptionists for veterinarians are eligible for doses.

Another stock argument is that we need to reduce the spread. Yet, the only people to whom the spread matters are those who'd get severely ill, end up in the ICU, or die. If one young/healthy person infects another and neither have any noticeable sickness, that sort of spread not only doesn't matter, it's a good thing: it will bring us closer to herd immunity. However, if someone infects a person in the High Risk Group that could be deadly. If that High Risk Group person is vaccinated, then the spread doesn't matter. Plus, it's still undetermined what percent of those vaccinated would still catch and be able to spread the virus.

WHAT YOU CAN DO
The thing you can do that will have the greatest impact is to make a simple webcam-style video where you ask a specific politician why you have to wait behind those at much lower ICU/death risk: "I'm 64 and have multiple risk factors. I need the vaccine to avoid ending up in the ICU. Why are you giving a dose that could go to people like me to 20-something receptionists at near-zero risk of the ICU?" Make sure and answer the objections above in the video. Then, post it, share it on social media, and send it to not just the media, but also the opponents of that politician. If you aren't in the High Risk Group, then recruit someone who is. The goal is to make the video go viral and shame the politician into vaccinating in the correct order. That will result in scrutiny that some might not welcome so you can only use a first name and post it under a pseudonym if that's a concern.

Another thing you can do is make the arguments above on the social media accounts of politicians.

You can call their offices and make the points above.

You can pit one politician against another: call a state representative and urge them to speak out against the plan from your state's governor. Let them know that if they refuse to speak out, you'll work to elect their future opponents. That has to be handled carefully, in case you want something else from that representative, so if you do you can moderate your demands and just let them guess at what you plan to do.

You can contact the past opponents of a politician and urge them to speak out. Here's a list of California politicians and their opponents from the 2020 election. Click an opponent's name and try to find their contact info. Then ask them to challenge the person who beat them on Newsom's plans, such as by issuing a press release.

You can contact the media and urge them to question politicians on the points above. If they refuse to do that, then publicize it with the goal of shaming them into doing their jobs.

You can also file FOIAs or local equivalents searching for damaging documents (see the links below for examples).

If you do any of the above and need help with something, feel free to contact us at ifwdus on yahoo.

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[1] To prevent people from falsely claiming they have a risk factor, some sort of proof can be required: a doctor's note, evidence from a pharmacy that they're receiving a specific medicine, evidence of a hospital stay, etc. If a doctor etc wants to charge for that, the government would pay for it. The government would also let doctors know that irregularities will be investigated, such as 100 Malibu residents all claiming to have risk factors through the same doctor and so on. Those who don't have a doctor could go to one for free. Some people would successfully game the system but with safeguards in place that would probably be a low enough number.

Last modified Jan 31, 2021
Discussed in (click each link for the full post):

Newsom, California DPH and OES Public Records Act request - 02/23/21

The following is a Covid19-related Public Records Act request sent to California governor Gavin Newsom, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, and the California Department of Public Health on 2/23/21. See the Covid19 page for the background details.

Letter to Eric Garcetti aide 1/24/21 - 01/26/21

The following is a Covid19-related letter sent to an aide for Los Angeles City mayor Eric Garcetti on 1/24/21. See the Covid19 page for the background details. It's hard to find a Garcetti supporter on social media. Even the LAT has admitted how bad the rollout has been.

Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Public Records Act request 1/12/21 - 01/26/21

The following is a Covid19-related Public Records Act request sent to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health on 1/12/21. They've requested an extension and their reply will be posted when it's available. See the Covid19 page for the background details.

California Department of Public Health Public Records Act request 1/11/21 - 01/26/21

The following is a Covid19-related Public Records Act request sent to the California Department of Public Health on 1/11/21. They've requested an extension and their reply will be posted when it's available. See the Covid19 page for the background details.

Letter to Gavin Newsom 12/18/20 - 01/26/21

The following is a Covid19-related letter sent to California governor Gavin Newsom on 12/18/20. See the Covid19 page for the background details. Dear Governor Newsom:

Biden implies whites would be low priority for COVID vaccine; lies about stats - 11/19/20

Joe Biden implies non-whites would be prioritized ahead of whites for receiving the COVID19 vaccine, and also lied about the statistics regarding those who've died from the disease. From the transcript of his November 19, 2020 press conference (bolding added) [1]: