Virginia Postrel: "Yes, Immigration May Lift Wages"

The former editor of the lunatic libertarian magazine Reason is positively frothing at the mouth as she announces a new study by two economists.

The study is "Rethinking the Gains From Immigration: Theory and Evidence From the U.S.", and it's available here. Since it soon gets into mathematical formulas and the like, I'm going to leave it to other academics to dispute its findings. However, I couldn't find anything in there making any kind of a distinction between legal and illegal immigration, or indicating what exactly they meant by immigration. The fact that they would not do that leads me to question the study.

From the article:

Immigrant engineers, for instance, may create demand for native-born patent lawyers and marketing executives.

It might also throw native-born engineers out of work. Or, they might start new companies and hire more native-born engineers. Or, those new hires might be immigrants from the same country. And, all of that might have an impact on the desirability of engineering as a career. And, if engineering is not as desirable, schooling for engineers will be cut back, leading to us having to import more foreign engineers, leading to us becoming dependent on them, leading to us losing our competitive edge. Oops! I guess we can't just look at things as a matter of dollars and cents, but instead we need to look at the whole, big picture.

And, of course, increased immigration increases the influence in our internal politics of the sending countries. But, oddly enough, you never hear lunatic libertarians discussing vital issues like that.

The lesson there is simple: libertarians really have no qualifications making policy because they just don't know what they're doing.

Comments

To D Flinchum the kids of the immigrates will bomb our cities and will kill Americans it is a normal way of life in the third world, we can stop it by shooting the rats but that will not happen and the rats will shot your kids someday, sad world but its a real world not a tv movie.

Stop the massive immigration and save your life and save your nation but that will never happen so get prepared to fight for your life. thank you D Flinchum love the post.

"Immigrant engineers, for instance, may create demand for native-born patent lawyers and marketing executives."

Or their children could bomb your subways and riot in the streets while burning down whole neighborhoods.

This is a version of the old biz regarding abortion in which the right-to-lifers describe a fetus with all sorts of potential health problems and ask if you would abort this fetus. If you say yes, they then crow "You've just aborted XXXXXXXXXX (any one of several "geniuses")!" Well, maybe you have and maybe you haven't. What you may have aborted is a fetus that, unless lost to miscarriage as a result of birth defects, may well develop into a person who will lead a miserable life with no hope of much beyond pain.

eh is right, and thank you Kleinheider and John S. Bolton.

And as far as the "study" goes...

It's all about money.

And some things are indeed more important than that.

For the record: I don't care if some study showed mass immigration would send wages to the moon, including mine -- I still wouldn't want it.

"in one generation"

Actually, I think we all know it will take longer than that, regardless.

And if libertarians, or people who call themselves that or don't object to being called that, would allow the Latino-ization of America thru 'open borders' or whatever, then this is certainly reason enough to view them and their philosophy with something approaching alarm. And yes I would throw the baby out with the bath water in this case.

The study has many flaws in its assumptions. It assumes complementarities which are not known to exist, and proposes that immigrants mainly push down each other's wages, with little effect on the citizenry. Such wishful premisses are aggravated by using data from the bubble year of 2000 as the end point. Real median personal incomes have been flat for over 30 years since 1973, a historically unprecedented piece of medieval stagnation for America. That mass immigration started then and continued throughout that time is no coincidence.

You wouldn't expect an economist to distinguish between legal and illegal immigration (at least I wouldn't) since economics deals in terms of natural states. Public policy only makes things less-than-natural. Or do you subscribe to the absurd artificial superabundance line?

As to the "lunatic libertarian" Reason Magazine: the magazine was pro-Susette Kelo when Kelo wasn't cool, favors lower taxes, reduced spending, rolling back the welfare state, supports federalism, and advocates healthy separations of the three brances of government: not exactly a marginal set of beliefs. The whole "elect one libertarian to Congress and there will be heroin in school vending machines and we'll all be named Perez in one generation" schtick is the only "lunacy" that I see.

"Or, those new hires might be immigrants from the same country."

In my experience, this is the likelier. I'm sure for most white engineers, it is not a comfortable experience to walk into an interview room and see that nearly everyone there is either Indian or Asian (e.g. Chinese), a sign that your chances of getting the job are small, because it's a certainty there are plenty of Indian and Asian applicants. It's all the more annoying that this happens in America, a country that before the 1965 Immigration Act kicked in was 90% white.

"...libertarians really have no qualifications making policy because they just don't know what they're doing."

I would say libertarians are people who don't seem to care what happens, as long as government is not a causal agent. I think few people can wholeheartedly share or endorse this philosophy.

"Yes, Immigration May Lift Wages"

As for this part, it would seem to defy common sense expectations about supply and demand, but it can sometimes happen that data confirms that conventional wisdom does not apply. Anyway, according to this link, real wages have been at best stagnant for some time. The specific figures for 1965 and 2004 show a significant decline.

The lesson there is simple: libertarians really have no qualifications making policy because they just don't know what they're doing.

That's funny.