In a previously-off the record interview with the Des Moines Register, Barack Obama had this to say about getting amnesty in 2013 (link):
The second thing I’m confident we’ll get done next year is immigration reform. And since this is off the record, I will just be very blunt. Should I win a second term, a big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and the Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community. And this is a relatively new phenomenon. George Bush and Karl Rove were smart enough to understand the changing nature of America. And so I am fairly confident that they’re going to have a deep interest in getting that done. And I want to get it done because it’s the right thing to do and I've cared about this ever since I ran back in 2008.
1. Many illegal immigration supporters will look at Obama's past actions and say, "yeah, sure". However, he might feel less constrained politically in a second term and wouldn't pass up the opportunity to get millions of new votes for the Democratic Party. He'd be under a lot of pressure from other Democrats who want to profit from those new voters down the line.
2. None of that would matter if the current major opposition to Obama was a smart, sane, mainstream, pro-American force. In that nearly-the-reverse-of-reality scenario, those in the opposition with megaphones would take the very easy step of simply showing how comprehensive immigration reform (aka "amnesty") is wrong. That opposition - the GOP and the Tea Parties - would cast aside the Democrats' framing of the immigration issue; instead of validating the Democrats' concepts on the issue, they would show how those concepts are bad for the U.S.
3. Unfortunately, that's just a fantasy. The leadership of the GOP isn't that smart and isn't capable of "thinking outside the box". The Teapartiers make GOP leaders look like Einsteins, and add being borderline sociopaths into the mix. For those reasons and more, the Teapartiers would continue to do what they've done in the past: largely ignore immigration, even though it's much more vital, fundamental, and important than spending. Those who lead them around by their noses will keep them from focusing on immigration, and the pretend-patriots in the Teaparties will mostly ignore it as they've done before.
As I said two and a half years ago, if you oppose amnesty you're in a war with two fronts. Not only do you have to discredit amnesty supporters like Obama, but you also have to redirect or discredit supposed-conservatives who want to ignore immigration or who side with those amnesty supporters.
Wed, 10/24/2012 - 10:46 · Importance: 4